Thursday, January 08, 2004
NFLX - NETFLIX stock
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=NFLX
So, i wanted to give a big buildup.. how ever, the market took off and so did the stock i was presenting.. I was talking about NetFlix:NFLX - the online DVD rental company - in my previous posts. Since i recommended ( not because i recommended) the stock is up 17.5$ or nearly 38%.
When i stopped my previous blog entry, i was discussing valuation. While the good news is that stock's been up and i ended up buying it at 44.89, the stock is 38% more expensive now. Is it still worth buying at this prices? Hard to tell.
What i am going to look for is the subscriber number. This company has achieved a lot in the last few years, and most of those achievements were in a hard, tough economy. Now that the economy is coming back and purse strings are going to loosen a bit more for consumer, how will that affect netflix? Will the consumers opt for convenience of blockbuster? will netflix be infact more convenient than blockbuster? your guess is as good as mine.
What's for certain is that valuation of netflix is purely based on the subscriber base and at this current juncture, the promise of growth in that subscriber base. Netflix is causing some havoc in the industry, posting strong growth when competitors point to declining rentals. Hollywood video (HLYW) warned about weakness in rentals.
NetFlix has a valuation of 1.54Billion$ currently and if we expect that they had a healthy quarter and ended that quarter at 1.54M subscribers, NFLX shareholders are paying 1000$/customer to acquire this stock. Not cheap.
However I believe that one should continue holding this stock and provided the numbers of growth are proved on a continuing fashion, acquire some more.
So, i wanted to give a big buildup.. how ever, the market took off and so did the stock i was presenting.. I was talking about NetFlix:NFLX - the online DVD rental company - in my previous posts. Since i recommended ( not because i recommended) the stock is up 17.5$ or nearly 38%.
When i stopped my previous blog entry, i was discussing valuation. While the good news is that stock's been up and i ended up buying it at 44.89, the stock is 38% more expensive now. Is it still worth buying at this prices? Hard to tell.
What i am going to look for is the subscriber number. This company has achieved a lot in the last few years, and most of those achievements were in a hard, tough economy. Now that the economy is coming back and purse strings are going to loosen a bit more for consumer, how will that affect netflix? Will the consumers opt for convenience of blockbuster? will netflix be infact more convenient than blockbuster? your guess is as good as mine.
What's for certain is that valuation of netflix is purely based on the subscriber base and at this current juncture, the promise of growth in that subscriber base. Netflix is causing some havoc in the industry, posting strong growth when competitors point to declining rentals. Hollywood video (HLYW) warned about weakness in rentals.
NetFlix has a valuation of 1.54Billion$ currently and if we expect that they had a healthy quarter and ended that quarter at 1.54M subscribers, NFLX shareholders are paying 1000$/customer to acquire this stock. Not cheap.
However I believe that one should continue holding this stock and provided the numbers of growth are proved on a continuing fashion, acquire some more.
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